Date of Award

1-2016

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Civil Engineering (MSCE)

Department

Civil Engineering

First Advisor

Dr. Mohamed M. Mohamed

Second Advisor

Dr. Ahmed A. Murad

Third Advisor

Prof. Donald H. Bum

Abstract

Al-Ain city is the second largest city in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and the third in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Currently, desalination plants are the only source of municipal water in Al-Ain city with an average daily supply of 170 MIG. The expected natural population growth, in addition to future projects, will certainly put additional stress on the water resources in the city. Therefore, Al-Ain city seems to be in an urgent need for estimations of future water demands for achieving sustainable development. The main aim of this thesis is to introduce a water demand forecasting model to predict water needs for Al-Ain city under different scenarios in the coming 15 years (till 2030), in order to achieve water resources sustainability in light of the expected increase in the water demands. A water budget model (WBM) for Al-Ain city is developed in this thesis for the years 2012 and 2030, respectively. Some uncertainties in the reading and recording data were discussed in this thesis, in addition to the uncertainties in the prediction. Two different models were adopted to forecast water demand of the different sectors using IWR-MAIN program, which are “Constant Use Rate Model” and “Linear Forecasting Model”. The verification of simulation models is conducted with two different base years. Three main groups of scenarios are introduced in this study, including water demand predictions assuming “business as usual”, population growth sub-scenarios, and amended losses sub-scenarios. Results showed that the water demand is expected to be almost doubled in 2030. Following the same consumption vii trends, the quantity of water outflow from the city in year 2030 is expected to be 50% than the water inflow to the city by model 1, while it is almost 35% in model 2.

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