Mathematical Modeling of Communicable Imported Diseases Screening in the United Arab Emirates

Lahbib Ben Ahmadi


The United Arab Emirates (UAE), as one of the countries with high numbers of expatriates in the world, is expected to face public health challenges. The reason for this situation is that the majority of those expatriates belong to regions where health issues are usually left behind. This may create the possibility of having imported communicable diseases. However, screening policy should be tested and adapted to protect the population from any imported communicable disease.

This study aims at identifying an approach and method to deal with these imported diseases via a set of differential equations. The spread of a communicable disease is examined by taking in consideration the nature of the expatriates in the UAE. The population of expatriates is divided into high risk and low risk groups.

The study concluded to the possibility of the persistence of the diseases under seven possible scenarios. Each of these scenarios represents the endemic level of the disease. To clarify the case simulations of two types of diseases are examined: HIV and Tuberculosis (TB).