Mathematical Modelling of the Imported Malaria in the United Arab Emirates.
Abstract
Although the UEA was certified to be free of local malaria transmission cases in 2007, the increased number of imported malaria cases in recent years required the attention of the public health professionals. The aim of this work is to study, via mathematical modeling, the impact of imported malaria cases on the population of the UAE. The nature of the health policies in the UAE imposes on us a model that classifies the living population of the UAE in two categories. The local population, who represent the permanent residents that do not have any health requirement for their residency, and the non-local population, which are required to have certain health conditions to maintain their residency status in the country. Basic reproduction number was computed and stability analysis and local sensitivity analysis were performed to understand the epidemiological features of imported malaria in the UAE. The simulation showed that when an infection is established in the country, it will not be affected by reducing the burden of the epidemic on the locals. Also, the local sensitivity presented the most influential parameter for the infected compartments which assist in the control measures. My model helped to show the possible outcomes of such epidemic on both human subpopulation and the control strategy to maintain lower epidemic size in the UAE